Dani Carvajal’s unexpected renaissance: a statistical outlook

By: Ardit Lipa | October 3, 2023 3:57 pm
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From the time Dani Carvajal rejoined Real Madrid in the 2013/14 season, till his 4th Champions League win in 17/18, Dani Carvajal was undoubtedly one of the very best right-backs in the world, and in some seasons, he was the outright best even. However, during the 17/18 season, Dani Carvajal was ruled out indefinitely due to heart issues, issues that made him fear that he would have to retire. The player is even quoted as saying “for four weeks, I couldn’t do anything” (via Marca). While the condition was eventually resolved and he ended up making 41 appearances in all competitions, the heart issues clearly had a big effect on the player. Post 17/18 and onwards, Carvajal began to look like a shell of his former self. After the heart issues, Carvajal looked to have clearly declined physically, with attackers often beating him for pace, and out muscling him. Him slowing down became a huge liability for the club, as he often was late to tackles and gave away dangerous free-kicks and penalties. His propensity for mistakes also took an upturn, maybe as a result of a lack of confidence, but regardless he became the weak-link in Madrid’s defense. Alongside this, he also became increasingly injury prone, suffering 15 different injuries from 17/18 onwards, and missing 98 games due to those injuries. His decline became so bad that fans clamored for a replacement or at least an alternative almost every summer for the last 3 or 4 years, but the club did not budge. Carvajal continued as the starter, and fans continued to worry.

At the start of the 23/24 season, most fans still assumed the worst; that Carvajal would be a huge liability for the team. However, to everyone’s surprise, Carvajal has started the season as arguably the best right-back in the world. In 6 starts in LaLiga, most of them as the captain on the field as the two captains ahead of him; Nacho and Modrić, are not starters, Carvajal has looked like his 16/17 version all over again. Carvajal’s physicality, speed, and ability in duels all seem to have returned, as his defensive actions this season have met the standard that he himself set all those years ago. No longer does he seem to be a vulnerable player in 1v1 situations, but rather is looking like a nightmare for wingers to take on.

This renaissance is reflected in his statistical output especially, as most of his statistics regarding duels have shot up compared to last season. Last season, Carvajal was attempting 6.3 duels a game, and winning only 2.9 ground duels p90. This season, his attempts have shot up to 10.7 p90, and he is winning 4.7 ground duels out of 8.4 attempted. In addition to this, his successful tackles p90 have also nearly doubled, going from 1.7 last season to 3.0 this season, and he is also winning slightly more aerial duels p90 (0.9 this season vs 0.6 last). While his duel success rate has gone up by only around 2%, the massive increase in volume is a clear indicator of how much he has improved this season. An increase of nearly double, alongside an increase in success rate rather than it going down due to him attempting more, shows that Carvajal has been far more aggressive and overall, a better player in those situations. Furthermore, despite the increase in his attempts, his fouls committed p90 have stayed static from last season at 1.2, which further shows that he has been far more assured and successful in his duels, as an increase in duels would naturally bring about an increase in fouls, but this has not happened with Carvajal. In addition to this, his successful tackles p90 have also nearly doubled, going from 1.7 last season to 3.0 this season.

On the offensive side of things, Carvajal has improved only marginally, creating 1.4 chances p90 and completing 0.9 take-ons, compared to 1.2 and 0.6 last season, but most of his improvements on this end are more obvious upon watching him. This season, Carvajal has been a far more consistent and reliable presence on the right-wing during attacks, often presenting himself as an option for switches of play, or as an overlapping presence to cross. His crosses p90 have stayed the same as last season, but his overall contribution as an attacker has improved drastically.

Despite all these improvements, there still is cause for concern. Carvajal has already missed some games due to a minor knock, and has had another injury scare as well. Even with all his on-pitch improvements, it’s still yet to be seen if Carvajal can be relied upon as a starter for large chunks of the season.

This renaissance, which the player attributes to dropping gluten from his diet, has come at an extremely important time for the club, as defensive stalwarts Militão and Courtois have suffered season ending injuries, and Carvajal’s importance in the team is now greater than what it was in the past few seasons. If Carvajal can keep up his form, and be available for most games, then Carvajal could genuinely finish the season as one of the very best right-backs in the world again.

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